With the 2008 Academy Awards officially less then one week away, I figured it was high time I throw my hat into the ring of non sensical and utterly un-important Oscar predictions. Because as everybody knows, the stakes are high and many if not all must get their two cents in before those names are read off of those envelopes on that oh-so special night.
Who Will Win?
Who Should Win?
Who wasn't even nominated?!?!?!
Which contemptuous piece of self-congratulatory hooplah will offend us the most?
Only time will tell, but until that day. I give you my list of oscar predictions and rants about why my taste is completely superior to that of the academy.
Editor's Note:
I am not an oscar prognosticator, usually my predictions are wrong. I think sure things are long shots and surprises usually pop up in categories that I think are solid locks. I also usually disagree violently with the majority of the decisions for awards so a lot of this is being written out of spite.
Just wanted to be up front with that...
Here we go, just starting from the top on down:
BEST PICTURE:
ATONEMENT
JUNO
MICHAEL CLAYTON
NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
THERE WILL BE BLOOD
Who Will Win:
No Country for Old Men
Who Should Win:
No Country for Old Men
Should have been nominated:
Zodiac, Sweeney Todd, Into the Wild, Ratatouille, The Assassination of Jesses James by the Coward Robert Ford, The Diving Bell and the Butterly, Once, 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days. and the list goes on and on and on...
I'm probably jinxing myself by predicting this because No Country will be the first time I movie I genuinely loved and actually thought was the best picture of the year is in fact the best picture of the year. It seems to have a lot of momentum behind it, and the only real threats I see it having are Juno and Atonement. Everyone knows what will happen if Juno wins (there shouldn't even be an award show due to the simple fact that its nominated). I think No Country will pull it off.
BEST ACTOR:
George Clooney
Daniel Day Lewis
Johnny Depp
Tommy Lee Jones
Viggo Mortensen
Who Will Win:
Daniel Day Lews
Who Should Win:
Johnny Depp
Should have been nominated
Emile Hirsch, Phillip Seymour Hoffman (for either the Savages or Before the Devil Knows You're Dead), Casey Affleck for either Gone Baby Gone or Assassination (the movie really is about him and Pitt is the supporting performance see Training Day for another backwards example of this, Mathieu Almaric, Tommy Lee Jones for No Country (again movie is really about him), Chris Cooper, Frank Langella, Christian Bale. I don't know how you would fit all these guys in here though
Okay, I know that Daniel Day Lewis completely owns this years award and nothing will stop that. And by a certain logic he deserves it, no other piece of acting was as compulsively watchable and out and out earth shattering as his take on Daniel Plainview. That being said, if I were on the academy, I would cast my vote for Mr. Depp. Technical skill aside and all that objective stuff, I was more impressed with Mr. Depp's performance in terms of its difficulties and how he not only surmounted them but improved upon them. He had a tougher job and he created a more memorable portrait taking the idea of a singing actor to bold new places.
BEST ACTRESS
CATE BLANCHETT
JULIE CHRISTIE
MARION COTILLARD
LAURA LINNEY
ELLEN PAGE
Who Will Win
Julie Christie
Who Should Win
Julie Christie
Should have been Nominated:
Nicole Kidman, Helena Bonham Carter (although some might argue she was more of a supporting player), Wei Tang, Amber Tamblyn (Stephanie Daley), Jiseon Kim (In Between Days), Carice Van Houten (Black Book), Anamaria Marinca (4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days)
This also appears to be somewhat of a lock. My heart is torn (to use Ebert's coinage) between Christie and Linney. I want Linney to win not only because she is amazing in the Savages but to make up for the travesty that was the 2000 academy awards when she lost to that faux-empowering ego fueled piece of blather known as Erin Brockovich. Then again Christie is the most devastating and deservedly will win the award. I must admit, I still have not seen La Vie en Rose so maybe I am completely wrong about all of this, except for Erin Brockovich sucking of course.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett
Rube Dee
Saoirse Ronan
Amy Ryan
Tilda Swinton
Who Will Win
Ruby Dee
Who Should Win
Amy Ryan
Should have been nominated
Jennifer Jason Leigh, Catherine Keener, Laura Vasiliu (4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days)
This is a tough one, not only because all of the nominees are deserving in their own way, but also because of the inability to predict the winner based on the swarming tides around three nominees. First it was Amy Ryan winning and everything and anything in her path. Then Blanchett wins the Golden Globe, then Ruby Dee wins the sag and now its just a big clusterfuck. Personally, I'd be happy if one of those three wins the award, maybe also Tilda Swinton because she gave a masterful performance.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck
Javier Bardem
Philip Seymour Hoffman
Hal Holbrook
Tom Wilkinson
Who Will Win:
Javier Bardem
Who Should Win:
Tough call but Javier Bardem
Should have been nominated
Either Mark Ruffalo or Robert Downey Jr. for Zodiac, Adrien Brody (The Darjeeling Limited), Ethan Hawke (Before the Devil Knows You're Dead), Ed Sanders (Sweeny Todd)
Like the supporting category, all of these nominees are quite deserving. I am torn between Javier Bardem who captivated the crap out of me and Hal Holbrook who sneaks up on you and breaks your heart. Javier's gonna win it no doubt, but again I wouldn't be against any of these nominees winning. This is a surprisingly strong year for Supporting work. Good job academy! Keep up the good work!
BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson
The Coen Brothers
Tony Gilroy
Jason Reitman
Julian Schnabel
Who Will Win:
The Coen Brothers
Who Should Win:
The Coen Brothers
Should have been nominated:
David Fincher, Tim Burton, Tamara Jenkins, Sarah Polley, Sean Penn, Brad Bird, Andrew Dominik, Vincent Paronnaud and Marjane Satrapi, Christian Mungiu, Sydney Lumet
Not much to say about this one, get rid of Gilroy (even though his movie is really really good), definitely get rid of Reitman (god he sucks) Other than that, it's a strong field and I just want to see what the Coen Brothers say in their acceptance speech. That and they deserve it for directing the shit out of that movie.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (this is a heartbreaker)
Juno
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
The Savages
Who Will Win:
Juno
Who Should Win:
The Savages/Ratatouille
Should have been nominated
The Darjeeling Limited, Margot at the Wedding, Eastern Promises, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead.
This one just sucks, one of the most irritating screenplays ever published is going to take away some much earned attention from The Savages just because its "indie" enough to be "hip" The academy has always had a tin ear for writing (see 2005 Crash over the Squid and the Whale are you fucking joking me) But this is taking their poisonous streak too far, the good people of Hollywood can do something about this before its too late, please vote with your hearts and your minds. Anything but Juno.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Atonement
Away From Her
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Who Will Win
No Country for Old Men
Who Should Win
No Country for Old Men
I just wish the Coen Brothers had written an original script this year, but in lieu of that they definitely wrote the best adapted script of this year. Although the accomplishments of Away from Her and Diving Bell should not be overlooked. Not much else to say about this one, I think its the Coens this year.
So there you have it, all the big awards parceled down to one mealy blog entry. I could go on and on about Best Cinematography and Best Live Action Short film, but does anybody want to read that? I don't want to read it or write it. Let me just say that it's not a matter of these awards being more important (although they definitely get more press). It's that all of the awards are equally unimportant, and I just decided to highlight these particular high profile names because therein lay the potential for the most amount of words to be spewed.
In conclusion, a great movie has the potential to take its rightful place alongside such masterpieces as:
Crash
Million Dollar Baby
The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
Chicago
A Beautiful Mind
Gladiator
and don't forget...Braveheat!!!!!
And other half-rate movies, most of which were not even worth the 3 cent dvd's upon which they were eventually stamped. And some of them even down right blew.
So no matter what happens, movies will continue to evolve and remain hopelessly dated at the same time. People will carve out their own niches, trends will be ignored, and demographics will not allow themselves to be exploited. The heart and power of filmmaking and movie-watching lies not in the useless trinkets one can accumulate, but in the quest to seek out the movies that never even had a chance.
